Zahran Mamdani Takes Early Lead in 2025 NYC Mayoral Race, Poll Shows

A recent poll of registered voters in New York City shows Assembly Member Zahran Mamdani holding a commanding lead in the 2025 mayoral race. The survey highlights widespread voter dissatisfaction with the city’s current trajectory, with affordability, housing, and public safety ranking as the most important issues shaping voter preferences.

In the initial ballot test, Mamdani secured 41.8% support, placing him far ahead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo (23.4%), Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa (16.5%), and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams (8.8%). Other minor candidates received just 1.6%, while 7.9% remain undecided. Analysts say these results underscore Mamdani’s strong early performance against more established political figures.

A Diverse Base of Support

Mamdani’s appeal cuts across political and demographic lines. He has the backing of 51.6% of Democrats, compared to 25% for Cuomo, while Sliwa dominates among Republicans with over 50% support. Importantly, Mamdani also polls strongly among Black (48%), Latino (45%), Asian (48%), and white non-Hispanic (44%) voters. Cuomo’s strongest base is Jewish voters (38%), while Adams maintains only modest support among Black voters (13%).

Hypothetical Matchups

The poll also tested “dropout scenarios” to gauge how the race might shift if certain candidates withdrew. In every scenario, Mamdani maintained a commanding lead. If Cuomo were to exit, Mamdani’s support would climb to 48.4%, giving him a 27.6-point advantage over Sliwa. If Adams dropped out, Mamdani would still lead Cuomo by 14 points. These results point to a resilient and durable voter base.

The Role of Undecided Voters

Undecided voters remain a critical factor. In a head-to-head matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo, 27% of voters—mainly older New Yorkers—remained undecided. This bloc, evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, could prove decisive in the final outcome.

Citywide Sentiment

Voters expressed overwhelmingly negative views of the city’s direction: just 9.2% believe NYC is moving in the “right direction,” while 52.7% say it’s on the “wrong track.” Despite this pessimism, nearly 59% remain optimistic that the city could improve with the right leadership.

The top issues cited by voters were:

• Affordability (61.3%)

• Public safety (53.9%)

• Housing availability (38.9%)
  Other concerns included education costs, transportation affordability, and healthcare expenses, underscoring the financial pressures shaping voter sentiment.

Candidate Favorability

Mamdani is viewed very favorably by 36% of respondents, though 42.3% view him very negatively, suggesting his outsider appeal is polarizing. Cuomo’s ratings are more balanced, while Adams faces the most negative perceptions, with nearly 50% viewing him very unfavorably.

Outlook for the 2025 Mayoral Race

While Mamdani currently holds a strong lead, experts caution that the large undecided bloc—especially older voters—remains up for grabs. With affordability, safety, and housing dominating the conversation, candidates who present credible solutions to these pressing issues are most likely to gain traction as the election draws closer.

The poll, conducted August 11, 2025, surveyed 1,376 likely voters citywide with a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points.