Nate Silver: Trump’s Approval Hits New Low Amid Federal Shutdown and Public Discontent
Polling expert Nate Silver reports Trump’s approval rating falling to -10.8 as Americans grow frustrated with the ongoing government shutdown.
Statistician and polling analyst Nate Silver has pointed out that the latest polls measuring President Donald Trump’s popularity show a “consistently worsening trend” during his second term.
Writing on his Substack blog, Silver said aggregated data from multiple surveys show Trump’s net approval rating has fallen to a new low of -10.8 points, signaling a widening gap between supporters and opponents.
Although political approval ratings typically fluctuate with national events, this sustained decline is seen as a reflection of growing public disapproval of the president’s political approach — particularly amid the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has disrupted public life and affected millions of Americans through halted services and economic strain. Many observers believe this shutdown has played a key role in damaging Trump’s image among large segments of the public.
Nate Silver: Trump’s Approval Ratings Continue Downward Slide Across Major Polls
According to Silver — founder of the polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight (538) — Trump’s net approval stood at -9.2 points at the beginning of last week before dropping to -10.8 by week’s end. This decline underscores the mounting public pressure on the administration as the nation grapples with interconnected political and economic crises.
Even pollsters traditionally more favorable to Trump — such as Rasmussen Reports and RMG Research — recorded negative numbers, at -8 and -1 respectively. These results are notable, Silver said, because even the most Trump-leaning surveys are no longer showing positive approval trends.
Other polls showed even darker figures: YouGov/The Economist registered -19 points, while Ipsos/Reuters reported -17.
Polls from Morning Consult and Clarity Campaign Labs were slightly better, with net approvals of -5 and -6, but still in negative territory — reinforcing the overall downward trend in Trump’s public support.
Experts Link Trump’s Low Approval to Ongoing Government Shutdown
Several experts attribute this decline directly to the continuing government shutdown. Heath Brown, a public policy professor at New York University, said that ending the shutdown would likely improve Trump’s ratings, noting that “Americans tend to support presidents when things are running smoothly.” The analysis reflects a growing perception that the crisis is hurting both the administration and citizens alike.
Data from RealClearPolitics support this view, showing Trump’s average net approval at -8.9 points — his lowest in the second term so far. According to these figures, 44.3% of respondents approve of Trump’s performance, while 53.2% disapprove.
Although Trump is not seeking another presidential run, his popularity remains a key factor shaping the U.S. political landscape, especially ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. These elections will test whether low approval will translate into Republican losses — or whether improved domestic conditions, especially an end to the shutdown, could help restore some public trust.
