US Tourism Faces Major Slowdown: International Visitors to Drop in 2025
American travel industry braces for first decline in international arrivals since 2020, with billions in potential losses and thousands of jobs at risk.
The American Travel Association has issued a warning about a significant slowdown in the U.S. tourism sector after new forecasts predicted a 6.3% drop in international visitors in 2025—the first decline since 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic and global travel halt. Visitor numbers are expected to fall from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025, bringing inbound tourism to roughly 85% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
In a recent statement, the association noted that the forecast represents both an opportunity and a warning for the U.S. travel economy. Domestic tourism remains stable, but the decline in international visitors threatens billions in lost revenue and thousands of jobs across hotels, airlines, and tourism-related services.
Total travel spending within the U.S. is expected to grow slightly by 1.1%, reaching $1.35 trillion in 2025, while inbound international spending is projected to fall 3.2% to around $173 billion. Much of this decline is attributed to a sharp drop in visitors from Canada, while travel from Europe and Asia is expected to remain mostly stable.
U.S. Tourism Outlook: Domestic Growth Offsets International Decline
Professor Jonathan Ernst, an economist at Case Western Reserve University, warned that the drop could have broader implications. Speaking to Newsweek, he said: “Declining arrivals, especially from Canada, Europe, and Asia, could heavily impact U.S. tourism revenues in 2025 and 2026.” He added that factors like a weaker U.S. dollar and major sporting events might ease the impact but cautioned that 2026 is unlikely to see a major tourism boom.
Despite the decline in inbound tourism, domestic travel is expected to continue growing by 1.9% to $895 billion, benefiting from strong consumer demand. However, any economic downturn or rising uncertainty could weaken this sector as well.
The report emphasizes that uncertainty remains high among U.S. consumers: “If overall economic conditions worsen, travel spending is likely to fall.”
The association expects international tourism to resume growth in 2026, reaching 70.4 million visits, with steady increases projected through 2029, driven by major events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the U.S. 250th Anniversary celebrations, and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, as well as upcoming rugby and winter Olympic events. Nevertheless, experts caution that even these events may not fully offset near-term declines.
Inbound Travel Decline Deepens U.S. Tourism Deficit, Experts Warn
Osha Hailey, an international business expert at Wichita State University, noted that the expected decline is more severe than assumed, influenced by external factors like visa delays, a weak global economy, and currency fluctuations. Negative perceptions of the U.S. or declining international student enrollment could worsen the situation.
Hailey highlighted both direct and indirect economic consequences, stating: “The drop in inbound travel deepens the U.S. trade deficit in tourism services and reduces spending in hotels, restaurants, and attractions, particularly in cities like New York, California, and Florida that rely heavily on foreign visitors.”
The association projects the U.S. tourism trade deficit to reach approximately $70 billion in 2025, driven by continued outbound travel by Americans relative to declining inbound visitors. Meanwhile, business travel is expected to grow only 1.4%, with leisure travel maintaining dominance even beyond 2026. Experts also warn that the shift to remote work and virtual meetings continues to limit recovery in business travel and conferences.
