Drivers in the United States are expected to spend the lowest share of their disposable income on gasoline in two decades, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Gasoline prices typically fluctuate, influenced by weather events, oil costs, and international wars and military activity. For many Americans, gas costs can serve as an economic indicator, alongside other household expenses such as groceries, housing, and healthcare.
Former President Donald Trump launched his campaign on lowering national energy costs and issued several executive orders aimed at strengthening U.S. energy independence.
EIA Forecast: Gas Prices to Average $3.10 in 2025
The EIA’s September 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts falling oil prices will bring down gasoline costs, with the average retail price of regular gas expected to hit about $3.10 per gallon in 2025, a 20-cent drop from last year.
The EIA stated:“Because of lower gasoline prices, U.S. driver spending on gas as a share of disposable personal income will likely be the lowest since at least 2005, excluding the pandemic year of 2020. We estimate average expenses will fall below 2% of disposable income this year, down from the 2.4% average of the past decade.”
Chris Higginbotham, an EIA spokesperson, explained that the agency calculates gasoline spending by multiplying projected gas prices by projected consumption, then dividing by total U.S. disposable income. Historical data is sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, while forecasts are based on the EIA’s macroeconomic model developed with S&P Global.
Higginbotham added:“Beyond falling prices, gasoline consumption remains lower than pre-pandemic averages, largely due to people driving more fuel-efficient vehicles.”
Americans Drive More Miles with Greater Fuel Efficiency
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are expected to be 3% higher in 2025 compared to the five-year pre-pandemic average, while the average vehicle is now achieving 8% more miles per gallon than during the same period.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told Newsweek via email that around Memorial Day this year, their data showed Americans spent the lowest share of wages on gasoline—adjusted for inflation and excluding 2020—since 2003.
De Haan said:“So yes, this is broadly consistent. We haven’t yet updated our 2026 fuel outlook, but I expect gasoline prices to be similar or slightly lower in 2026.”
The EIA also forecasts a slight increase in U.S. gasoline consumption next year, marking its first 2026 outlook.
While gasoline prices have declined in recent years, many Americans still feel pressure from other energy-related costs.